Friday, March 30, 2007

KK vs AA my nemesis

I've been grinding out 9 tabling the past couple of weeks as much as possible which has not been very much! I have been ahead for the most part but the one hand that has been killing me lately has been KK. It seems that no matter how I play it preflop that if I am destined to get a lot of action, that action has been coming from AA. In the past two weeks I have probably had KK lose to AA allin about 10 times. And there have been a couple of times where I have thrown KK away preflop!! Something I never do and I am worried that I am going to become even more passive than I have been recently which would turn me to stone. Here's an example of today's hit.

PokerStars Game #9159851529: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/03/30 - 03:43:13 (ET)Table 'Badenia' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: CaptPC ($17.45 in chips)
Seat 2: chillmode123 ($85.90 in chips)
Seat 3: ganono ($29.85 in chips)
Seat 4: PuckaTucka ($98.85 in chips)
Seat 5: viensmevoir ($90.40 in chips)
Seat 6: DonJ ($129.75 in chips)
Seat 7: Buffalo 78 ($100 in chips)
Seat 9: rtrenton ($49.25 in chips)
DonJ: posts small blind $0.50
Buffalo 78: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to DonJ [Kd Kc]
rtrenton: folds
CaptPC: folds
chillmode123: raises $3 to $4
ganono: folds
PuckaTucka: folds
viensmevoir: folds
DonJ: raises $6 to $10
Buffalo 78: folds
chillmode123: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [4c Th Td]
DonJ: bets $8chillmode
123: calls $8
*** TURN *** [4c Th Td] [4d]
DonJ: bets $20
chillmode123: raises $47.90 to $67.90 and is all-in
DonJ: calls $47.90*** RIVER *** [4c Th Td 4d] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DonJ: shows [Kd Kc] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
chillmode123: shows [Ad Ac] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
chillmode123 collected $169.80 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $172.80 Rake $3 Board [4c Th Td 4d Js]

This has been typical. KK has been running into AA so many times lately. The one thing he does in this hand that is something I really appreciate is that he does not repop me preflop. If he does there is a possibility that I can get off the hand or at least slow it down and not play for all my chips. Maybe. As played there is not much I can do here.

As for my bankroll, it is up about 500 hundred this month. Combined with about 30000 fpps that is good for about 1k in March. My goal for April is to remain profitable at .50/1 for about $750 and gain about 20000 fpps which at Platinum is worth about $800. I think 20k fpps is doable if I get in enough hours in April. We will see. Looking ahead I have my sights on double Supernova in 2007 and total earnings over 1k/month. Barring a full out crackdown on Internet poker.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

22" Monitor!

One week ago my patience wore out in my wait to go to more than 4 tables. I purchased a 22' monitor from Future Shop. And I am very happy with it!! I am now able to 9 table .50/1 NLH at Stars, earning 270 vpps/hour. In my last post I stated I would be going to dual 22' monitors. However now that I have this one I find that 9 tables is near my maximum and for now the distraction that a second monitor could pose is enough to forego gettting it.
I have yet to have a long day of just poker yet. However I have had a couple of 3 hour sessions. The 9 tables is forcing me to be tighter than normal and that is probably a good thing. I am planning to stay at .50/1 until I build up to at least 6k and maybe as much as 7.5k so that I have a real nice buffer there. I am torn as to whether I should use my fpps to build my bankroll or to convert them to profit that I take out. If I take them out I will be delaying future move ups, however part of me feels that psychologically that I need to earn my way up by beating my opponents and the rake. Now I know that the fpps are a form of rakeback and I am earning them the hard way so if it comes to it I will probably use them. But for now I think I am going to let them build up and see if I can build my br the hard way.
As for going Supernova that should happen sooner than I first had hoped and going platinum monthly should not be a problem anymore.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Blueprint for Supernova

Well, it has been nearly a month since my last post. A good portion of the month I have spent playing 2/4 Triple Draw with mixed but primarily positive results. I would most likely continue playing it, however I find I cannot play a mix of NLH and TD successfully. They are just so different to play. It must be one or the other.
It really has been another up and down month but the oscillations seem to be getting smaller. Usually that indicates an uptrend in the future as the major negative days are minimized and the smaller but more numerous winning days begin to dominate.
The last 2 months of stagnation have gotten me wondering what the future holds for my poker. Can I break out and be successful. Can I build on 3 $2500+ years? Is there real money to be made?
Well, one thing that did happen in February that I have not mentioned is I was able to go Platinum Star and PS once again, building on what I did in December. Being Platinum means approximately US$500/month in fpps. If I maintain platinum I will eventually go Supernova late in the year. But the problem has been that it has been a struggle to make platinum every month. Therefore I have formulated a plan to go Supernova more quickly and to make enough fpp's per month to earn US$1500/month!! This in only 2.5hrs/day which is my current amount of play.
How??
Currently I am 4 tabling .50/1 and barely +ev. .50/1 gives approx. 32vpps/hr. Multiplied by 4 tables is about 128vpp and 2.5 hours is about 320vpps per day. In a month that is about 10000vpps. At platinum that is about 25000+ fpps a month.... 4x32x2.5x30=10000 thenx2.5 is about 25000. 62000fpps=$1000US. So just under $500/month..

My plan is to continue 4 tabling .50/1 thru March. By then I will earn enough fpps to get a 2nd $1k gift certificate from Future Shop. I will use the FS cash to purchase dual 22" monitors and any hardware necessary to run them.

I expect to move to the next phase no later than May1st. At this time I will begin 8 tabling .50/1. This will get me around 19500vpp a month. or close to 49000fpps/month or $800US/mth. I hope to continue 8 tabling .50/1 for about 4 months. Depending on how my bankroll is doing I will then supplement it. Also by the end of August I should be now a SUPERNOVA! When I supplement my bankroll with money converted from fpps using $215 sit and go satellites...whew, I will then move to 8 tabling $1/$2!! 1/2 tables pay out approximately 43 vpps/hour. Combined with my Supernova status and the 3.5 fpp bonus that goes with it my new calculations are awesome...

8 tables x 43vpp/hour x 2.5 hours =860vpps/day.....860vpps x 30 days/mth x 3.5 fpps/vpp =90300fpps/mth!!
90300fpps/mth x 12 mths = 1,083,600/yr! Remember 62000fpps =$1kUS

So by 8 tabling 1/2 for 2.5 hours/day I estimate my total income strictly from fpps to be $17500US!

I have already put this plan in motion. I believe the biggest roadblock that could happen is the adjustment to 8 tables at 1/2. However I have 6 tabled before successfully over short periods on a 17' monitor with overlap in the past.

Even if I prove out to be -ev at 1/2 while 8 tabling I believe the fpp's earned while doing so will far outweigh any loss.....

My hope of course is that I will prove out to be +ev at 1/2 and I am actually confident that if I am able to concentrate on my game that I will prove this out. Of course the other thing that can happen which probably will happen is that I will end up playing fewer than 2.5 hours per day while 8 tabling. I expect my hours on the tables to decline a bit when I move to 8 tables. We shall see! If things go to plan I shall be able to make a withdrawal by the end of the year or nearly $5000US and sometime in 2008 I will try to move up again to 2/4.

Of course the other goals are towards the WSOP and winning at least one seat. So far I am slightly ahead in the satellite money but have yet to play a qualifier. I plan to play as many $2, $5 and $7 rebuy satellites as possible. I plan to use the $2 and $7 satellites to pay for the $5 satellites to the $160 qualifiers. I have played 3 of those and yet to win a seat to the qualifier yet. I plan to play all of these $160 DS qualifiers that i win seats into. They appear to be my best shot into the WSOP. My other option is to play $15 DS into the $650 qualifiers. It will probably depend on my mood. I won one of those last year but did not play the qualifier....This year I plan to take many shots at qualifying. We shall see...