"Do not anticipate trouble, or worry about what may never happen. Keep in the sunlight."-Benjamin Franklin
The big wait is on for the next few weeks. It is so hard not to think of what may or may not be but really there is not much that can be done until the cards fall as they may. My work and life is one big guessing game as to what will happen. At the best of times we don't know what could happen day to day but right now life is really up in the air! Job, children, family illness. Wow. A lot of what ifs going on!
About the only thing I know for sure is that coming soon shift work for me will be a thing of the past at least for the near future! So there is definately one thing we can put in the win department! If I continue on at the mill it will be Monday to Friday. If I am laid off then it will be onto EI and most likely a combination of trade school, EI and poker to make ends meet.
On the poker front there will be some significant changes coming in the way I will be organizing my schedule. Obviously with the change from 4 on 4 off shift work to Monday to Friday work or school my poker schedule will change as well. As my body and mind readjusts to a much more normal circadian rhythm I expect that the extreme exhaustion I have been working around for the past couple of years should hopefully fade somewhat. Yes, I am one tired dude most of the time!
What does my new schedule mean? On the poker front it means I can experiment with different ways to put in table hours and still get in sleep and exercise and spend time with my family and get work done around the house. Going to work at 8 am means that I have an opportunity to change the way I spend my time. Instead of going to bed late and getting up at at 6 am for work I can go to bed at around 9 pm and get up at 4 Am getting 7 hours sleep. That is more than I am used to on a dayshift. 8 hours would be best but we shall see. I will always have to option of sleeping until 6AM. Getting up at 4 Am means I can get in a 10 minute bike ride, shower, eat and be playing poker by 5AM. Playing 18 tables for 2 hours undisturbed in the morning would mean a vpp output of over 1000 a day during the period of Monday to Friday while still getting to bed by 9pm every night. Saturday and Sunday I could probably fit in 3 to 4 hours of play. (LOL yeah right!, but sometimes yeah I will). Over the course of a month instead of doubling my vpp output when I go from one to two monitors because of my new schedule I will actually be close to tripling it. Now I am not saying that it is a sure thing but I can hypothesize that I will be close to 45000vpps/month in the second half of 2008 when taking into account mill curtailments and such giving me even more days off than normal. Plus vacation time etc. That would comfortably allow me to reach 300000vpps for the year. That means bonuses on top of the worth of the fpps of about $3500. Not bad right. Well, it gets alot better in 2009....Let's look ahead to a couple of the possibilites shall we....
In a perfect world I could play enough to earn Supernova Elite status in 2009. I think I am about a 1% chance of this happening. I will simply be too busy with other things to have the time. Work school family etc. To do that would take about 6 hours of 24 tabling 100NL a day or about 5 hours at 200NL. Its possible but highly unlikely for someone in my position without big sacrifice. The payoff is big though. A Supernova Elite earns over $100000 in year one with just a net zero winrate!That goes up to about 130K in year two as more bonuses kick in. If you can hit further bonuses for 1.25 million vpps it goes up from there....The bonuses are pretty enticing!! That is the carrot that is out there. To read more on Supernova Elite status go here http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/supernova/elite/ . For information on Supernova status which I am currently go here http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/supernova/ .
Now as a Supernova there are bonuses setup every 100k vpps that go up the higher you go. At 200K vpps the bonus is $2000,at 300K it is $3000 and so on up to 600K where it is $6000.
As I said before I believe that I can conceivably hit 45000vpps every month in 2009. That would give me 540K vpps for the year. Half way to Elite. In fact I believe at this time, looking way in the future that 500K vpps is a goal that I can reach in 2009. I give myself a 75% chance of making it to 500K in '09. 600K would be a great achievement and I set the chances at about 25% for that. That final 100K would be worth nearly $10000 in fpps and the bonus. Let's run the numbers for 400K, 500K and 600K, the three most likely totals for 2009! Yeah I am looking ahead because in 08 I don't believe 400K is all that realistic at this point. 300K should be almost a lock as long as I go to two monitors fairly soon and play a reasonable amount of hours.
Ok, what does 400K vpps earn me....First off that is 33333vpps/month.
400Kvpps x 3.5 = 1.4 millon fpps.
That is 14 x $1500 bonus which is now my preferred way of cashing fpps = $21000.
There are 3 milestone bonuses at 2,3 and 4ooK equalling $9000 but we must deduct a cost of 150K fpps or $2250. So the actual bonus is just $6750.
So just totalling the fpps worth and the bonuses gives me...... $27750 or $2312/month.
My equity in Saturday freeroll tourneys is about $300/month. So at 400K and an even winrate at 100NL my earnings expectation is about $2600/mth.
Ok how about 500Kvpps which is my goal for 2009.
500K x 3.5 = 1.75 millonfpp
17.5x $1500 = $26250
Bonuses $6750 + $4250= $11000
Freeroll equity=300x 12=$3600
Total=$40850 or $3404/mth.
This is my poker goal looking ahead at 2009 and where I most likely expect to be earnings wise in 2009.
Ok what if, if I were able to make 600Kvpps in 2009. With curtailments, possible paternity time off from work, holidays.. this is why I give myself a 25% chance at 600K...
600K x 3.5 =2.1 mill fpp
21 x $1500 = $31000
bonuses $11000 + $5250= $16250
Freeroll equity= $3600
Total = $50850 or $4237/mth
That would be ok......
About the only thing I know for sure is that coming soon shift work for me will be a thing of the past at least for the near future! So there is definately one thing we can put in the win department! If I continue on at the mill it will be Monday to Friday. If I am laid off then it will be onto EI and most likely a combination of trade school, EI and poker to make ends meet.
On the poker front there will be some significant changes coming in the way I will be organizing my schedule. Obviously with the change from 4 on 4 off shift work to Monday to Friday work or school my poker schedule will change as well. As my body and mind readjusts to a much more normal circadian rhythm I expect that the extreme exhaustion I have been working around for the past couple of years should hopefully fade somewhat. Yes, I am one tired dude most of the time!
What does my new schedule mean? On the poker front it means I can experiment with different ways to put in table hours and still get in sleep and exercise and spend time with my family and get work done around the house. Going to work at 8 am means that I have an opportunity to change the way I spend my time. Instead of going to bed late and getting up at at 6 am for work I can go to bed at around 9 pm and get up at 4 Am getting 7 hours sleep. That is more than I am used to on a dayshift. 8 hours would be best but we shall see. I will always have to option of sleeping until 6AM. Getting up at 4 Am means I can get in a 10 minute bike ride, shower, eat and be playing poker by 5AM. Playing 18 tables for 2 hours undisturbed in the morning would mean a vpp output of over 1000 a day during the period of Monday to Friday while still getting to bed by 9pm every night. Saturday and Sunday I could probably fit in 3 to 4 hours of play. (LOL yeah right!, but sometimes yeah I will). Over the course of a month instead of doubling my vpp output when I go from one to two monitors because of my new schedule I will actually be close to tripling it. Now I am not saying that it is a sure thing but I can hypothesize that I will be close to 45000vpps/month in the second half of 2008 when taking into account mill curtailments and such giving me even more days off than normal. Plus vacation time etc. That would comfortably allow me to reach 300000vpps for the year. That means bonuses on top of the worth of the fpps of about $3500. Not bad right. Well, it gets alot better in 2009....Let's look ahead to a couple of the possibilites shall we....
In a perfect world I could play enough to earn Supernova Elite status in 2009. I think I am about a 1% chance of this happening. I will simply be too busy with other things to have the time. Work school family etc. To do that would take about 6 hours of 24 tabling 100NL a day or about 5 hours at 200NL. Its possible but highly unlikely for someone in my position without big sacrifice. The payoff is big though. A Supernova Elite earns over $100000 in year one with just a net zero winrate!That goes up to about 130K in year two as more bonuses kick in. If you can hit further bonuses for 1.25 million vpps it goes up from there....The bonuses are pretty enticing!! That is the carrot that is out there. To read more on Supernova Elite status go here http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/supernova/elite/ . For information on Supernova status which I am currently go here http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/supernova/ .
Now as a Supernova there are bonuses setup every 100k vpps that go up the higher you go. At 200K vpps the bonus is $2000,at 300K it is $3000 and so on up to 600K where it is $6000.
As I said before I believe that I can conceivably hit 45000vpps every month in 2009. That would give me 540K vpps for the year. Half way to Elite. In fact I believe at this time, looking way in the future that 500K vpps is a goal that I can reach in 2009. I give myself a 75% chance of making it to 500K in '09. 600K would be a great achievement and I set the chances at about 25% for that. That final 100K would be worth nearly $10000 in fpps and the bonus. Let's run the numbers for 400K, 500K and 600K, the three most likely totals for 2009! Yeah I am looking ahead because in 08 I don't believe 400K is all that realistic at this point. 300K should be almost a lock as long as I go to two monitors fairly soon and play a reasonable amount of hours.
Ok, what does 400K vpps earn me....First off that is 33333vpps/month.
400Kvpps x 3.5 = 1.4 millon fpps.
That is 14 x $1500 bonus which is now my preferred way of cashing fpps = $21000.
There are 3 milestone bonuses at 2,3 and 4ooK equalling $9000 but we must deduct a cost of 150K fpps or $2250. So the actual bonus is just $6750.
So just totalling the fpps worth and the bonuses gives me...... $27750 or $2312/month.
My equity in Saturday freeroll tourneys is about $300/month. So at 400K and an even winrate at 100NL my earnings expectation is about $2600/mth.
Ok how about 500Kvpps which is my goal for 2009.
500K x 3.5 = 1.75 millonfpp
17.5x $1500 = $26250
Bonuses $6750 + $4250= $11000
Freeroll equity=300x 12=$3600
Total=$40850 or $3404/mth.
This is my poker goal looking ahead at 2009 and where I most likely expect to be earnings wise in 2009.
Ok what if, if I were able to make 600Kvpps in 2009. With curtailments, possible paternity time off from work, holidays.. this is why I give myself a 25% chance at 600K...
600K x 3.5 =2.1 mill fpp
21 x $1500 = $31000
bonuses $11000 + $5250= $16250
Freeroll equity= $3600
Total = $50850 or $4237/mth
That would be ok......
posted by DonJ at 10:10 PM
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